According to the Winter 2023 Economic Forecast, the average price of Brent oil is projected to be $84.8 per barrel in 2023, but it is expected to decrease to $79.9 the following year.
According to the European Commission, the implementation of a price cap on offshore deliveries of Russian oil and the imposition of an embargo on it have not caused any increased stress on the global market. Furthermore, there are no concerns about the effects of similar measures being taken against Russian oil products, which went into effect on February 5th. The EC believes that there will not be any shortage of diesel fuel.
The revision of their forecast is due to the successful reduction of energy dependence on Russia, which has resulted in a drop in gas prices. The primary risk factor in this situation remains geopolitical tensions.
If the European Commission’s predictions hold true, the average cost of Urals oil, Russia’s primary export grade, will be below $60 per barrel by the end of the year, which is the price ceiling level.